Intel gains, Nvidia flat, and AMD loses graphics market share in Q1

Quarter-to-quarter total GPU shipments down 10%—Desktop graphics off 6.7%

May 19, 2014 -- Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, announced estimated graphics chip shipments and suppliers’ market share for 2014 1Q.

For the previous three quarters, the PC graphics market has gone up. This was the first quarter to show a decrease in shipments since last. Shipments were down 11.6% quarter-to-quarter, and down 4% compared to the same quarter last year.

Quick highlights:

• AMD’s overall unit shipments decreased 18.2% quarter-to-quarter, Intel’s total shipments decreased 7.9% from last quarter, and Nvidia’s decreased 10.4%.
• The attach rate of GPUs to PCs for the quarter was 135% and 33% of PCs had discrete GPUs, which means 67% of the PCs are using the embedded graphics in the CPU.
• The overall PC market decreased 9% quarter-to-quarter, and decreased 3.5% year-to-year.

Q1 is typically the quarter when retailers try to unload what they bought for the holiday season that they didn’t sell, and is traditionally seasonably lower than previous quarters. The drop this quarter compared to last year’s and is not alarming.

GPUs are traditionally a leading indicator of the market, since a GPU goes into every system before it is shipped, and most of the PC vendors are guiding down to flat for Q2’14.
The Gaming PC segment, where higher-end GPUs are used, was a bright spot in the market in Q1. Both Nvidia and AMD said sales of their higher-end GPUs were strong, lifting the ASPs for the discrete GPU market.

The popularity of tablets and the slow but steady economic improvement are the most often mentioned reasons for the decline in the PC market, particularly at the lower-end. The CAGR for total PC graphics from 2014 to 2017 is basically flat. We expect the total shipments of graphics chips in 2017 to be 400.8 million units. In 2013, 447 million GPUs were shipped and the forecast for 2014 is 399 million.

The ten-year average change for graphics shipments for quarter-to-quarter is a growth of -2.8%, and this quarter was -11.6%.

The quarter in general

• AMD’s shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, i.e., APUs dropped 21.9% from the previous quarter, and increased 3.7% in notebooks. AMD’s discrete desktop shipments decreased 6.6% and notebook discrete shipments declined 21.8%. . The company’s overall PC graphics shipments decreased 18.2%. This was due to a drop off in stand-alone integrated graphics chipsets, which was not unexpected given the company’s move to embedded CPU graphics in their APUs.
• Intel’s desktop processor embedded graphics (EPGs) shipments decreased from last quarter by 5.1%, and notebooks decreased by 9.7%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipments decreased 7.9%.
• Nvidia’s desktop discrete shipments decreased 6.6% from last quarter; and, the company’s notebook discrete shipments decreased 14.5%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipments decreased 10.4%.
• Year-to-year this quarter AMD’s overall PC shipments decreased 22.1%, Intel decreased 5.6%, Nvidia decreased 12.7%, and others essentially went away.
• Total discrete GPU (desktop and notebook) shipments from the last quarter decreased 11.5% and decreased 14.3% from last year for the same quarter due to the same problems plaguing the overall PC industry. Overall, the trend for discrete GPUs increased with a CAGR from 2014 to 2017 of 0.1%.
• Ninety nine percent of Intel’s non-server processors have graphics, and over 67% of AMD’s non-server processors contain integrated graphics; AMD still ships integrated graphics chipsets (IGPs).

Year-to-year for the quarter, the graphics market decreased. Shipments were down 4 million units from this quarter last year, which suggests the big declines are leveling off.

Graphics chips (GPUs) and chips with graphics (IGPs, APUs, and EPGs) are a leading indicator for the PC market. At least one and often two GPUs are present in every PC shipped. It can take the form of a discrete chip, a GPU integrated in the chipset or embedded in the CPU. The average has grown from 1.2 GPUs per PC in 2001 to almost 1.35 GPUs per PC.

Graphics chips are without doubt one of the most powerful, exciting, and essential components in tech today: not only does every computer require one (or more) but the technology is entering into major new markets like supercomputers, remote workstations, and simulators almost on a daily basis. It would be little exaggeration to say that GPUs resembles the 800-pound gorilla in the room.

It is critical to get a proper grip on this highly complex technology and understand its future direction.

This detailed 46-page report will provide you with all the data, analysis and insight you need to clearly understand where this technology is today and where it's headed.

This fact and data-based report does not pull any punches: frankly, you will be shocked by some of the analysis and insight.

Our findings include discrete and integrated graphics (CPU and chipset) for Desktops, Notebooks (and Netbooks), and PC-based commercial (i.e., POS) and industrial/scientific and embedded. This report does not include the x86 game consoles, handhelds (i.e., mobile phones), x86 Servers or ARM-based Tablets (i.e. iPad and Android-based Tablets), or ARM-based Servers. It does include x86-based tablets, Chromebooks, and embedded systems.

We have been providing quarterly reports on the PC graphics market shipments since 1988.

For more Q1'14 Market Watch Charts and Images click here.

The report contains the following content:

• Major suppliers: Detailed data-on the shipments of AMD, Intel, Nvidia, and others
• Financial results for the leading suppliers: Analysis of the quarterly results of the leading GPU suppliers;
• Market Forecasts: You will also be able to download a detailed spreadsheet and supporting charts that project the supplier’s shipments over the period 2001 to 2018. Projections are split into platforms and GPU type.
• GPUs: History, Status, and Analysis;
• Financial History from for the last nine quarter: Based on historic SEC filings, you can see the sales and profit results of the leading supplier historically as well as currently
• A (Scary) Vision of the future: Building upon a solid foundation of facts, data and sober analysis, this section pulls together all of the report's findings and paints a vivid picture of where the PC graphics market is headed. Some may find the material in this section highly disturbing;
• Charts, graphics, tables and more. Included with this report is an Excel workbook. It contains the data we used to create the charts in this report. The workbook has the charts and supplemental information.

Click here to learn more about this major report, or to download it now.

Pricing and Availability
The Jon Peddie Research's Market Watch is available now in both electronic and hard copy editions, and sells for $2,500. Included with this report is an Excel workbook with the data used to create the charts, the charts themselves, and supplemental information. The annual subscription price for JPR's Market Watch is $4,000 and includes four quarterly issues. Full subscribers to JPR services receive Tech Watch (the company's bi-weekly report) and a copy of Market Watch as part of their subscription. For information about purchasing Market Watch, please call 415/435-9368 or visit the Jon Peddie Research website at http://www.jonpeddie.com.

Contact Robert Dow at JPR (Robert@jonpeddie.com) for a free sample of TechWatch or MarketWatch

About Jon Peddie Research
Dr. Jon Peddie has been active in the graphics and multimedia fields for more than 30 years. Jon Peddie Research is a technically oriented multimedia and graphics research and consulting firm. Based in Tiburon, California, JPR provides consulting, research, and other specialized services to technology companies in a variety of fields including graphics development, multimedia for professional applications and consumer electronics, high-end computing, and Internet-access product development. Jon Peddie'sMarket Watch is a quarterly report focused on the market activity of PC graphics controllers for notebook and desktop computing.