The UK will become the first major economy to see advertisers spend more on the internet than on TV ads, according to the latest forecast from a leading media buying agency.
Group M, the combined media planning and buying operation owned by Sir Martin Sorrell's WPP group, predicts that UK internet ad spend will overtake TV, which has been the leading advertising medium for half a century, in 2009.
The agency is also predicting that Sweden will this year become the first country to see advertisers spend more on the internet than on TV ads.
Group M forecasts that the UK will be on the brink of passing the milestone at the end of 2008, when the internet will account for 24.8% of UK media spend, just behind the 26% share held by the TV ad sector, according to Group M.
After that, UK internet ad spend will need to grow just another 6% year on year to overtake TV in 2009.
Group M predicts that UK internet revenue is likely to climb by 30.8% this year, to £3.4bn, compared with just 1% year-on-year growth in TV ad spend to around £3.56bn.
Adam Smith, the futures director at Group M, said that the UK was a "special case" that meant it would be the first of the world's big economies to pass the milestone of internet ad spend overtaking TV.
"The UK is a special cases," he added. "Its TV share [of all media spend] is depressed by the BBC and there is still a large and healthy print sector and Britons are among the world's heaviest internet users."
However, Smith cautioned that this did not mean the demise of TV as a major advertising medium.
"The internet is not one medium, its growth rate is a blend of three distinct businesses growing at different speeds: search, display and classified," he said.
"Most of the growth is coming from search advertising and that is being fuelled by either new money or from the direct marketing sector, not so much from TV ad budgets."
Group M estimates that search spend accounted for 63% of all internet ad revenue in 2007 and will take a 65% share this year.
Search will grow by around 35% this year, while the smaller display and classified sectors will see growth of around 20%.
"The growth of search is not a threat to established media," said Smith. "It is the growth of online display advertising, although small, that is a threat with money coming from areas such as newspaper ad revenue and maybe some TV spend."
In Sweden, at the close of last year TV ads accounted for 19.8% of all media spend, compared with the internet's 16.7% share, according to Group M.
By the close of 2008 the internet will have grown to take a 19.5% share of all media spend in Sweden, compared to the 19.2% share held by TV advertising.
"Sweden is an exception but time and again the internet turns exceptions into rules," said Smith.
"Television's share of advertising spend in Sweden is small because it is a relative latecomer to commercial TV."
Group M measures "net" advertising revenues, excluding money made from agency commission charges.
· To contact the MediaGuardian newsdesk email editor@mediatheguardian.com or phone 020 7239 9857. For all other inquiries please call the main Guardian switchboard on 020 7278 2332.
· If you are writing a comment for publication, please mark clearly "for publication".